The 78% That Did Not Exist: Reconstructing Polymarket's Misdated Rate Signal"
"article": "The Polymarket contract priced a 78% implied probability that the...
Podcast
•
StackSignal
•
2026-09-15
Market Prices
| Coin | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|
|
BTC
Bitcoin
|
$81,621.5 | -0.07% |
|
ETH
Ethereum
|
$2,419.2 | +0.17% |
|
SOL
Solana
|
$104.14 | +0.29% |
|
BNB
BNB Chain
|
$718.4 | -0.48% |
|
XRP
XRP Ledger
|
$1.3 | -0.31% |
|
DOGE
Dogecoin
|
$0.0801 | -0.21% |
|
ADA
Cardano
|
$0.2222 | -1.11% |
|
AVAX
Avalanche
|
$9.88 | -1.24% |
|
DOT
Polkadot
|
$1.14 | -2.12% |
|
LINK
Chainlink
|
$12.09 | -1.78% |
Fear & Greed
55
Greed
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202630
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
15
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
Altseason Index
41
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
Trending
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$81,621.5
1
Ethereum
ETH
$2,419.2
1
Solana
SOL
$104.14
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$718.4
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.3
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0801
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.2222
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$9.88
1
Polkadot
DOT
$1.14
1
Chainlink
LINK
$12.09
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xef14...6988
30m ago
Stake
616 ETH
🔴
0x24ae...e3bf
5m ago
Out
34,337 BNB
🔵
0x9323...71d6
12h ago
Stake
39,927 SOL
💡 Smart Money
0x4f87...7692
Arbitrage Bot
+$1.9M
80%
0x56bb...f3d7
Institutional Custody
+$4.3M
82%
0x5062...4065
Top DeFi Miner
+$3.7M
66%
#DID
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